Is North Korea lying about firing a new weapon?
A weapons test this week has intensified tensions between North and South Korea, with Pyongyang claiming they launched an advanced multiple warhead missile and Seoul accusing them of lying.
North Korean state media celebrated the "success" of the test on Thursday, even publishing photos as evidence. However, South Korea quickly countered, calling it "deception and exaggeration," and presented their own evidence suggesting the test had failed.
Analysts remain uncertain about the veracity of North Korea's claims. This dispute highlights the ongoing difficulties in verifying North Korea's weapons development, which continues to progress despite strict international sanctions.
If North Korea's recent claims are accurate, it would mark a significant advancement in their missile program. Multiple warhead missiles, which are complex to develop and difficult to defend against, are currently only possessed by the US, UK, France, Russia, and China. North Korea now asserts they are approaching this capability.
Experts have long speculated that North Korea might eventually develop MIRV (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle) technology. This involves a single missile carrying several warheads, each capable of hitting different targets independently after launch.
On Thursday, Pyongyang claimed to have "successfully conducted the separation and guidance control test of individual mobile warheads" the previous day. The test reportedly used the first-stage engine of an intermediate-range solid-fuel ballistic missile and deployed three warheads plus a decoy. The missile traveled a "shortened range" of 170 to 200 km (105 to 124 miles) for safety and measurement purposes, with state media asserting that the warheads hit their targets and the decoy was effectively deployed.
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South Korea's military, however, quickly debunked these claims, stating the "flight was not normal" and that the missile exploded mid-flight. They released a video showing the missile's unstable flight and subsequent explosion, noting that the amount of debris indicated a failed test. They also accused North Korea of using old photos from a March intercontinental ballistic missile test.
Analysts cited by South Korean news agency Yonhap noted that the test range was typical of intercontinental ballistic missile tests and speculated that the missile might have had inadequate guidance and control systems. Other experts believe some parts of the test may have succeeded, though much remains unknown. Yang Uk, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies, noted that while the warheads' flight and separation might have worked, there is no evidence they reached their targets.
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Japan's defense ministry reported that the missile achieved a maximum altitude of 100 km, indicating it did not enter outer space but stayed within the Earth's atmosphere. Dr. Yang pointed out that this meant the warheads were not tested for re-entry conditions, leaving their capabilities unverified.
The weapons test was observed by South Korean civilians near the border, with videos showing a visible contrail in the sky. North Korean weapons expert and former US State Department official Vann Van Diepen remarked that the video did not indicate a major explosion or catastrophic failure, but noted there was no independent proof that the warheads were successfully released and flew on their own.
Regardless of the test's success, North Korea likely gained useful technical data, moving them closer to achieving MIRV capability, a goal set by their government in 2021. MIRV missiles are highly valued for their efficiency, especially in scenarios where North Korea might have a depleted missile arsenal following an enemy's first strike.
Even if this week's test was successful, it would not complete the development of such a weapon. Experts estimate North Korea is still several years away from achieving MIRV capability. The timing of the test, just days before a significant plenary meeting, suggests it may have been intended to showcase military achievements and signal defiance to their adversaries.
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The US has responded minimally to the test, issuing a brief joint statement with Japan and South Korea condemning it. Mr. Van Diepen suggests that the US government, with its superior resources for analyzing North Korea's weapons tests, could provide more clarity. Without such information, North Korea gains a propaganda victory.
Additional reporting by Jake Kwon and Rachel Lee.
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