Ohio Senator J.D. Vance accused of advancing Putin's agenda

 Ohio Senator J.D. Vance accused of advancing Putin's agenda

Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance is positioning himself to be former President Donald Trump’s running mate.

Critics argue that Vance’s stance on Ukraine echoes Trump’s history of aligning with Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin. They claim Vance’s rhetoric must be music to Putin’s ears.

This year, Vance has criticized American policy toward Ukraine in the New York Times, on the Senate floor, and even at a conference in Munich. He has voted against aid for Ukraine and called for immediate negotiations to end the war.

Experts argue that Vance's approach would only embolden Putin to expand Russia's boundaries and undermine neighboring democracies further. History shows that autocrats quickly abandon promises when seeking more territory.

“I don’t know whether (Vance is) just naive, or whether he is sinister, but either way, his policies go against the interests of all Americans and all citizens of the free world as it relates to Russia and Ukraine,” said Bill Browder, an American-born investor turned human-rights activist.

Putin repeatedly tried to imprison Browder after he helped pass sanctions against Russian human-rights abusers. Browder is now known as one of Putin’s “fiercest enemies.”

Vance’s office declined to respond to detailed questions for this story.

In recent public comments, Vance acknowledged that Putin might not be the nicest guy but said he has more pressing priorities than opposing the Russian president.

“There are a lot of bad guys all over the world, and I’m much more interested in some of the problems in East Asia right now than I am in Europe,” Vance said in February.

What Putin wants

Vance’s comments dismiss many of the U.S.’s staunchest allies and misunderstand the threat posed by Putin, said Tetiana Hranchak, a Ukrainian researcher who fled Putin’s invasion and is now a visiting scholar at Syracuse University.

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Hranchak explained that Putin sees himself as a successor to leaders like Joseph Stalin and Peter the Great. In Putin’s mind, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union were humiliations at the hands of the United States-led West.

“Putin is obsessed with three goals: Power. Greatness. Revenge. He’s not interested in democracy. He’s interested in the complete subjugation of other people,” Hranchak said. “He wants to create a new Eurasian empire and get even with the Western world.”

In Munich, Vance condemned Putin over the suspicious death of Alexei Navalny, the leader of Russia’s political opposition, whom Putin had imprisoned.

“I’ve never once argued that Putin is a kind and friendly person,” Vance said.

However, Vance has consistently advocated for the policy that Putin probably most wants to hear from a U.S. senator and top candidate for vice president — that the United States should stop funding Ukraine’s resistance against Russia. Vance justifies this by saying Ukraine’s resistance is futile.

“I go back to this question about ‘abandoning Ukraine,’” Vance said in Munich. “If the $61 billion of supplemental aid to Ukraine goes through, I have to be honest with you, that is not going to fundamentally change the reality on the battlefield.”

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Shared burden

Vance has also argued that Germany and other Western European countries aren’t paying their fair share to defend their interests, leaving the United States to shoulder the burden.

“For three years, the Europeans have told us that Vladimir Putin is an existential threat to Europe,” Vance said in April. “And for three years, they have failed to respond as if that were actually true. Donald Trump famously told European nations they have to spend more on their own defense. He was chastised for suggesting that Germany should step up and pay for its own defense.”

Trump has long complained that U.S. allies in NATO aren’t pulling their weight in the mutual-security alliance. Trump has even threatened to quit NATO altogether.

Putin was undoubtedly delighted at the prospect of a U.S. withdrawal. This is partly because Russia fears NATO security guarantees that have crept closer to its borders. Additionally, democracy is a requirement to join NATO, and Putin fears that its presence in his neighborhood threatens his own undemocratic power.

The argument that Germany and other NATO allies aren’t paying their share when it comes to Ukraine is debatable.

When support for Ukraine is considered on a per-capita basis, the United States is only the 16th most-generous country. Germany in January announced it expected to devote 2% of its GDP to defense this year, the notional target that Trump has complained NATO members aren’t meeting.

Difficult numbers

As he works to become Trump’s No. 2, Vance has argued that Ukraine doesn’t have the manpower and the United States doesn’t have the weapons-making capacity to oust the Russians and restore Ukraine to its 1991 boundaries.

“Ukraine needs more soldiers than it can field, even with draconian conscription policies,” Vance wrote in an April column in the New York Times. “And it needs more matériel than the United States can provide.”

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While Vance may be correct that Ukraine won’t be able to restore its 1991 boundaries, experts argue he is wrong to badmou th U.S. support for the country.

Putin was emboldened to invade Ukraine in early 2022 after the United States and its NATO allies didn’t respond more forcefully to the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014.

While Ukraine faces daunting numbers, Putin faces bleak math of his own as Russia hemorrhages men and matériel. Calls like Vance’s to stop U.S. support and force Ukraine to make immediate concessions would only embolden Putin.

“The goal is to wait out the Russians,” said Charles Kupchan, a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University. “Now the Russians are waiting us out. They’re waiting for J.D. Vance and Donald Trump and other opponents of aid to Ukraine to win because then (Putin) can have his way with Ukraine.”

Kupchan suggested Ukraine should shift to a defensive posture and may eventually need to cede territory in Crimea or its far east to Russia. However, the way to get Putin to stick to any deal is to show him that Ukraine and its supporters are committed for the long haul.

“We need to flip the script,” Kupchan said. “We need to make it clear to the Russian leadership and the Russian people that